A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
