Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
